Matanzas: A Demographic Diagnosis of Concern in Western Cuba

The province of Matanzas is emerging as one of the Cuban territories with the most alarming demographic situation, according to official data published by the Center for Population and Development Studies (CEPDE) of ONEI in its Demographic Indicators of Cuba and its territories for 2025.

While the nation faces accelerated population aging and a historically low birth rate, Matanzas deepens these trends with figures that exceed the national average in mortality and emigration, and falls below in births.

The behavior of births, with only 4,166 births during 2025, places the province below the national crude birth rate, which was 7.1 per thousand inhabitants. In Matanzas, that rate plummeted to 6.9 per thousand, one of the lowest in the country, evidencing a limited generational replacement.

This decline in the arrival of new Matanzas residents occurs in a context of high mortality, where the province reported 9,032 deaths, representing a crude mortality rate of 14.9 per thousand inhabitants, above the national 14.2.

This imbalance between deaths and births yields a negative natural growth of -8.0 per thousand, well below the -7.1 registered in the country.

«The difference may seem small, but in demographic terms it is significant: Matanzas loses population at a faster rate than the Cuban average,» explained a CEPDE specialist. Added to this is a net migration balance of -28.8 per thousand inhabitants, a figure that exceeds the national -25.6 and confirms the population drain toward other provinces and abroad.

However, not everything is negative. Matanzas shows a more favorable indicator than the national average in infant mortality rate, which stood at 9.4 per thousand live births, compared to Cuba’s 9.9. This suggests that although the province has difficulties attracting and retaining population, maternal and child health care remains effective.

Fertility, a Silent Challenge

Although the publication does not detail the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) by province, the indicators point to Matanzas being among the territories with the lowest propensity to have children. The combination of low birth rate, high mortality, and strong emigration suggests that Matanzas’ TFR could be below the already critical national average of 1.29 children per woman, far from the generational replacement level of 2.1.

Aging and Age Structure

Another distinguishing element of Matanzas is its markedly aging population. The average age in the province reaches 43.2 years — slightly higher than the national average of 43.0 — while the median age rises to 45.2 years, also above Cuba’s 45.0. This implies that half of Matanzas residents are over 45 years old, which exacerbates pressure on health and social security systems and reduces the base of the working-age population.

Matanzas in the National Context

On Cuba’s demographic map, Matanzas ranks among the provinces with the worst performance, comparable to Villa Clara or Havana, although surpassed in some indicators by eastern territories such as Guantánamo, which still maintains a higher birth rate (9.1 per thousand) and lower mortality rate (11.0 per thousand).

The capital, for its part, although having a higher mortality rate (17.3 per thousand), also shows a birth rate of 6.0 and a more negative migration balance, but its status as a service and employment hub gives it different dynamics.

For specialists, the case of Matanzas reflects Cuba’s structural challenges: an aging population that emigrates and does not reproduce at the necessary rate.

«If differentiated public policies are not implemented to stimulate birth rates and retain young people, Matanzas could experience an even more severe population contraction in the coming years,» the report warned.

Meanwhile, the 2025 data leaves a clear message: Matanzas needs prioritized attention in terms of fertility stimulation, improved living conditions, and curbing emigration, if it aspires to reverse a demographic course that, for now, only seems to deepen.

Information based on Demographic Indicators of Cuba and its territories 2025, prepared by the Center for Population and Development Studies (CEPDE) of ONEI.